Post by D6 on Dec 4, 2023 0:51:50 GMT -5
Thoughts in ****
Instant observations: Lions hold on for 9th win, but concerns continue to grow
Instant observations: Lions hold on for 9th win, but concerns continue to grow
Updated: Dec. 03, 2023, 5:42 p.m.|Published: Dec. 03, 2023, 4:23 p.m.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: Week 13 Benjamin Raven
By Kyle Meinke | kmeinke@mlive.com
NEW ORLEANS -- The Detroit Lions have extended their division lead to three games heading into the final five weeks of the season.
But a 33-28 win against New Orleans on Sunday won’t make anyone feel better about the trajectory of their season.
The Lions sprinted to a 21-0 lead on back-to-back-to-back touchdown drives to open the game, but were outscored 28-12 the rest of the way and twice had to hold off New Orleans in a one-possession game. They finally salted away the victory when Saints quarterback Jameis Winston -- in the game for injured starter Derek Carr -- threw wide of Chris Olave on a late fourth down.
**** On the positive side, most importantly the Lions held on to win the game in a difficult stadium to play in as the road team. In most past seasons, this is a game the Lions probably would have ended up losing. The 2023 Lions have done a very good job in winning close games through this point of the season. On the negative side, the Lions currently don't look like a team that's on a path to advance deep in the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl. ****
Jared Goff found Josh Reynolds on third-and-7 on the other side of the 2-minute warning, and Detroit was finally able to drain the rest of the clock.
**** Gutsy and risky decision by Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson in calling a pass play in that situation, in which a pocket pass was the call. Thankfully, Jared Goff made a good enough throw when getting hit, with Josh Reynolds running a great route, getting open, and securing the ball. ****
The Lions improve to 9-3 -- matching their best win total since 2014 -- and have stretched their lead over Minnesota to three games in the NFC North. But they also continue to play some of their worst football of the year. They lost to lowly Green Bay last week, fought back from a 1% win probability the week before that against last-place Chicago, and needed a buzzer-beating field goal to fend off the Los Angeles Chargers before that.
**** Going 3-1 in this stretch with the Lions not playing as well as earlier in the season (especially on Defense) is a credit to the coaches and players. But it currently feels like every remaining game is going to be a struggle to finish with a win.****
That’s four straight weeks of bad football, especially on defense. They still won three of those games, and should be commended for doing enough to win while falling on tough times. But all four of those games were against losing teams, and there are serious questions about Detroit’s trajectory heading into the most important weeks of the season.
After their game in Chicago next week, the Lions face the red-hot Broncos, the first-place Cowboys, and have two games in three weeks against the second-place Vikings.
**** Winning in Chicago against a substantially improved Bears team from early in the season is not going to be remotely easy. It definitely wouldn't surprise me if Bears win the game.****
The Lions’ second-ranked offense is a big reason for their ability to prevail through adversity. David Montgomery opened the game with a touchdown run, Jameson Williams added another on a reverse in the fourth quarter, while rookie tight end Sam LaPorta caught all nine of his targets for 140 yards and one score.
****Amon-Ra St. Brown also scored on a 25 yd TD reception by Jared Goff, in which St. Brown broke a tackle on LB Zack Baun.****
The Lions looked like they might put this one away early, but suffered on both sides of the ball during a 21-6 run by New Orleans over the next two quarters. They especially struggled to get off the field on third down, allowing three long conversions on a touchdown drive before halftime, and then Jerry Jacobs allowed a 33-yard bomb on third-and-12 coming out of the break. Alvin Kamara punched the ball into the end zone on the next play from scrimmage, and what once looked like a blowout had turned into a one-score game.
**** The Lions Defense came through on the Saints final drive but the outcome could very realistically have been different if the Saints had a better QB available. ****
Detroit was able to separate again when Derek Carr fumbled late in the fourth quarter, losing the football after he collided with the elbow of his left guard. Safety Tracy Walker recovered the loose leather, and Williams made ‘em pay with a 19-yard touchdown on a reverse. That stretched Detroit’s lead to 33-21 early in the fourth quarter.
**** Huge break the Lions took advantage of, but the failed 2 point conversion could have been costly.****
But the Saints just wouldn’t go away, and even when Carr left the game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury, Jameis Winston took the field and bounced a pass off Brian Branch to Chris Olave, who sprinted 30 yards to the goal line. Quarterback Taysom Hill punched in the touchdown from there, and New Orleans had drawn back within 33-28.
**** The Saints got a huge break at the time on the 3rd Down pass that Brian Branch deflected. If Branch didn't end up deflecting the pass, Jerry Jacobs would have been in great position for an interception that he might have returned for a TD. ****
Running back David Montgomery dropped a rare pass on third down on the ensuing series -- out of a gorgeous off-schedule pass by Jared Goff -- giving the ball right back to New Orleans in a five-point game with 5:54 left. But Winston threw off target on fourth down, and Detroit was finally able to put away the game for good on Goff’s third-and-7 pass to Josh Reynolds that moved the sticks.
**** Jared Goff did a better job on off schedule type of plays in the 4th QTR than he usually does. Goff was a huge reason why the Lions ended up winning this game.****
Catastrophe was averted for another week, but concerns continue to loom about a Lions team that hasn’t looked like its once-dominant self in more than a month.
**** My realistic expectations before the start of the season were a Lions Divisional Title and a 1st Round playoff win. This is currently my realistic expectations for the Lions. ****
Let’s get to some more instant observations:
-- What more could be said of Sam LaPorta that hasn’t already been said before? Tight end is notoriously difficult on rookies, but he immediately looked like one of Detroit’s best skill players after reporting to Allen Park over the summer. Now he’s off to the greatest statistical start by a Lions rookie tight end ever, and continued his assault by turning in a career game in New Orleans, catching nine more passes for 140 more yards and one touchdown. The score gave the Lions a quick 14-0 lead, and LaPorta added a huge 48-yarder late in the third quarter that set up a field goal amid the Saints’ comeback bid. LaPorta now has seven games with at least five catches, which is second all time by a rookie in NFL history.
**** Sam LaPorta's best catch probably was the 3rd Down play with around 2:45 remaining in the game. That reception, in tight coverage, gave the Lions a MUCH needed 1st Down. Excellent all around game by LaPorta. I definitely believe this was his best game, regardless of what his PFF Grade ends up being. ****
Given all that, the T.J. Hockenson trade is looking better by the day isn’t it? The Lions actually scored more points while going 8-2 without Hockenson down the stretch last year, and have now replaced him with a highly productive player on a rookie contract for years to come -- plus they picked up draft capital along the way. Win-win-win, and it’s a big reason this rebuild is so far ahead of schedule. Give a lot of credit to Dan Campbell, a former NFL tight end, and Ben Johnson, who used to coach tight ends, for knowing how to handle the personnel at that position and unlocking some of the best rookie production ever there. Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, no one has been better or more consistent in the passing game than the second-round pick.
**** Very well stated. ****
-- There was a lot of hand-wringing when Jamaal Williams bolted for New Orleans in free agency, and even more when Detroit used the 12th overall pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. We can debate the value of taking a running back that highly in the draft -- and Lord knows we have -- but there is no dispute Brad Holmes made the correct decision to reassemble the offensive backfield. Detroit is tracking for its best season on the ground since Barry Sanders’ MVP season in 1997, and continued its roll in New Orleans.
***** Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell's vision for the Lions running game has been on display much of the season. If the Lions were more fortunate with injuries on the Offensive Line, I think the running game would be on an even higher level by a sizable margin. ****
Gibbs broke a 36-yard run on the very first drive of the game and finished with 60 yards on eight carries, while David Montgomery added another 56 yards and his 10th touchdown of the season. With that, the Lions now have two players with 600 rushing yards and five rushing TDs for the first time since -- drum roll please -- 1936.
**** That's a remarkable statistic!****
Jamaal Williams, meanwhile, finished with just 10 yards on five carries against his old team, continuing his season-long funk. It was a difficult decision to move on from the locker room favorite, but Detroit is simply better off with Montgomery and Gibbs, and that tandem continues to be the engine that drives one of the league’s best offenses.
****Agreed.****
-- After preaching turnover margin all week, the Lions showed improved results in New Orleans. Brian Branch opened the game by spearing Derek Carr’s first pass with one hand, while Tracy Walker jumped on the football after Carr collided with his left guard in the third quarter. Both plays led directly to touchdowns, while the Lions didn’t turn over the ball at all -- the difference in a game like this. Detroit has already dropped two games while going through turnover woes, so this was a welcomed step in the right direction.
***** The Lions needed to be at least + 2 in takeaways vs turnovers to win this game. The Lions had a miscue on the first play from scrimmage, which fortunately resulted in the Lions recovering the ball to make it 2nd Down. Jared Goff also came close to an interception in the first half by CB Paulson Adebo. Otherwise, the Lions kept the ball out of harm's way. ****
-- For the third time in four weeks, Jameson Williams has made a huge fourth-quarter play. This time, he took a pitch out of a reverse and cruised through the Saints defense before taking flight into the end zone -- literally -- on a 19-yard touchdown blast. The play helped swing momentum back Detroit’s way after a 21-6 Saints run had made this a one-score game, and provided a 33-21 cushion in the final minutes. Williams also battled through pass interference to catch a 12-yard pass that led to Detroit’s first touchdown of the day. Williams finished with just one catch for 11 yards and is still waiting for his big breakout game, but continues to show week-to-week consistency as a late-game playmaker. You can only imagine what this offense looks like once he’s ready to become more integrated into the passing game. Because that kid can really, really fly.
**** Jameson Williams' TD run was very well blocked. Tremendous speed on display by Williams! ****
-- Hello, Bruce Irvin! The longtime Seahawks pass rusher finally made his Lions debut after making his way to Detroit’s practice squad a couple weeks ago, and he wasted no time showing he’s still got juice left. Irvin racked up a third-down sack on one of his first snaps as a Lion, taking down Carr during that explosive first quarter. At 36 years and 32 days old, Irvin becomes the second-oldest player in franchise history to produce a sack. The oldest is cornerback Otis Smith, who recorded a sack at 38 years and 67 days old in 2003.
Just how much Irvin adds to the pass rush remains to be seen, but getting something out of someone not named Aidan Hutchinson -- anyone, anyone at all -- is certainly a step in the right direction. But Irvin was flagged for roughing the passer when he drove Carr into the turf in the fourth quarter. Carr was injured on the play, and replaced by a combination of Taysom Hill -- who played all day, and gave Detroit fits -- and Jameis Winston.
**** Great job by Bruce Irvin and Aidan Hutchinson on the 3rd Down sack by Irvin. The Roughing the Passer Penalty was the correct call. Irvin likely will be fined heavily by the NFL. The play could have been very costly for the Lions. The loss of Derek Carr was certainly felt by the Saints on their final Offensive Possession.
Romeo Okwara also had a sack in the game. Great effort by Okwara against two blockers (Right Side of the Saints Offensive Line, combined with the coverage, on the play. ****
Winston was fortunate on his first series, having a ball tipped by Brian Branch right into the hands of Chris Olave, who sprinted 30 yards to the goal line. Hill pounded the ball into the end zone on the next play, drawing New Orleans to within 33-28 with 7:30 left.
****Taysom Hill is a great athlete and competitor. His accuracy issues as a passer though limit his effectiveness. Hill underthrew Chris Olave, on a play that Kerby Joseph was able to break up the long pass. A more accurate pass would have resulted in a TD, or at the very least the Saints being in the Red Zone. Hill was also off target on a pass near the right sideline.****
-- Jack Campbell, Derrick Barnes and Malcolm Rodriguez started at linebacker while Alex Anzalone nurses a hand injury, and Barnes (nine) and Campbell (eight) wound up leading the defense in tackles. But Jalen Reeves-Maybin played in a four-man rotation, and really made his presence felt with a quarterback hit, pass defended and set up a big loss in the backfield against Alvin Kamara. He also racked up four tackles in an exemplary day on special teams. It was a big day for Reeves-Maybin, who was originally drafted by the Lions and returned to the team last offseason. Now with Detroit needing linebackers to step up, he has in a big way.
**** Much like with Sam LaPorta, deserves a game ball for his performance in the Lions road win over the Saints. ****
-- The Lions finished with 347 yards of offense overall, the 12th straight time they’ve racked up at least 325 yards to start the season. That’s a club record, and no one else in the league had a streak of longer than five such games entering the weekend.
**** It's a credit to Ben Johnson, all of the Lions Offensive Coaches, the Lions Offensive Players, Dan Campbell, and Brad Holmes for this remarkable string of 325 + yard games on Offense. The historic struggles of the Patriots and Jets Offenses help put in perspective what the Lions have accomplished on Offense through 12 games this season. ****
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This new thread is a continuation of the following thread:
Lions at Saints preview: Game # 12 ( 2023 )
detroit-lions-forum.proboards.com/thread/1952/lions-saints-preview-game-2023?page=1&scrollTo=9414