Post by D6 on Jan 2, 2023 6:13:34 GMT -5
Thoughts in ****
Instant observations: Lions crush Bears to take improbable playoff bid into finale
Instant observations: Lions crush Bears to take improbable playoff bid into finale
Updated: Jan. 01, 2023, 4:18 p.m.|Published: Jan. 01, 2023, 4:04 p.m.
By Kyle Meinke | kmeinke@mlive.com
DETROIT -- Just one team has ever made the playoffs after opening a season with six losses in seven games. They’ve been playing this sport for 103 years, and only the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals have accomplished the feat.
After pounding the Chicago Bears 41-10 on Sunday, these Detroit Lions have a chance to become the next to come back from the dead.
The Lions (8-8) have won seven times in nine games to rocket from the bottom of the league to just one spot out the NFC playoff field. They already passed Washington (7-8-1), which lost to Cleveland, for the eighth spot. And they could move into the seventh and final playoff seed by day’s end, if Seattle (7-8) loses against the New York Jets.
Even if the Seahawks win that game, the Lions will still take their unlikely playoff bid to the final week of the season. In that case, they would need a win in Green Bay and a loss by Seattle to claim the final spot out of the NFC.
No matter what happens around the league, the Lions are now headed for a do-or-die finale against the Packers in the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field. The game is currently scheduled for 1 p.m. Sunday, although the NFL could flex it to Saturday. The schedule is expected to be announced late tonight or on Monday.
**** Tremendous job by the Lions both with the decisive win over the Bears and going 7-2 in the last 9 games to have a chance at a playoff spot in the final day of the regular season.
The Seahawks beat the Jets 23-6. The game was reflective of the score.
The Packers beat the Vikings 41-17. The Packers control their playoff fate. If the Packers beat the Lions, they are in the playoffs with a regular season ending 5 game winning streak. If the Lions beat the Packers, the Lions would need the LA Rams to beat or tie the Seahawks in Seattle to secure a playoff spot. The Seahawks need to beat the LA Rams and for the Lions to beat or tie the Seahawks to secure a playoff spot.
While a Seahawks win over the Rams would eliminate the Lions from the playoffs, the Lions would have at the very least Pick # 6 of the 2023 Draft from the Matthew Stafford trade. With a Rams win over the Seahawks, the Lions would at the very least have no worse than Pick # 9, the very likely Draft outcome. The worst case Lions scenario is for the Packers and Rams to win. ****
The Lions will roll into that game with one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. Jared Goff completed 21 of 29 passes for 255 yards, three touchdowns and no picks to lead the undressing of the Bears. He was the No. 2-rated quarterback in the league for the month of December. His rating against Chicago: 133.5.
**** If Jared Goff performs at the level that he did in the first 3 QTRs, the Lions have a good chance at upsetting the Packers on the road. Green Bay is currently 4 1/2 point favorites.****
Goff has been so good with the short stuff all season -- having Amon-Ra St. Brown helps those endeavors, no doubt about that -- but has really rolled after rediscovering the deep ball down the stretch. He completed the third-most 25-yard passes in December, before hooking up with St. Brown and DJ Chark for 28-yard shots early against Chicago. Goff also smartly threw up a prayer when under duress on fourth down early in the game, and Chark drew a critical pass interference in the end zone.
**** That Pass Interference penalty was huge. The Bears already led 7-0. At that point of the game, Justin Fields had his usual mobility. The Lions would have been in serious trouble if the Bears built a 14-0 lead. ****
Two plays later, Goff threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to tight end Brock Wright to knot up the game 7-all -- a huge sequence given how Justin Fields was running early on.
**** Exactly****
Wright is a blocking tight end, although we might have to stop calling him that. He caught the 51-yard game-winner on fourth down against the New York Jets two weeks ago, then added two more touchdowns to help Detroit open up a 24-10 halftime lead against Chicago. Wright now has four touchdown catches on the season, and Shane Zylstra does too for that matter.
Who needs T.J. Hockenson when you’ve got a stockpile of skill players like Detroit?
The Lions certainly didn’t think they did, and traded Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings at the deadline. Now they hold five picks in the first three rounds of the upcoming draft, while also getting more scoring from their tight ends this season than in any other.
**** The production for the TEs on the roster has been a major part of the Lions winning formula since the trade of T.J. Hockenson. Ben Johnson has done a terrific job creating opportunities for the Lions TEs in the passing game and they have delivered much more often than not. ****
D’Andre Swift chipped in two touchdowns and Jamaal Williams added another, running the Lions’ season total to 433 points. This is now officially the No. 2-scoring team in franchise history. Only the 2011 team has scored more, at 474 points.
**** Great job by the Lions running game. A much needed rushing performance, after the recent struggles with the ground game.
This was a Lions record 8th game scoring 30 or more points. ****
Let’s get to some more instant observations:
-- In James Houston and Aidan Hutchinson, the future of the Lions’ pass rush looks brighter than it has in generations. Hutchinson has been the most productive rookie pass rusher in the league, and added another half-sack to his collection against Chicago, plus picked off his third pass and recovered his second fumble. The man who forced that fumble, of course, was Houston. The sixth-round pick was the only member of his draft class not to make the roster out of training camp, but has been one of the hottest pass rushers in the league -- rookie or otherwise -- since finally making his debut on Thanksgiving. He added three more sacks against Chicago, giving him 7.5 for the season, an NFL record through any player’s first seven games. Remarkable stuff, given how late in the draft Houston was taken, and just how late into the sesaon he made his debut. He earned his first start against Chicago, yet another sign his role is expanding. And very deservedly so, because he’s racking up sacks faster than anyone, ever.
**** Both James Houston and Aidan Hutchinson were difference makers in this game. Houston made the greater tangible impact. Much more often than not, Hutch maintained contain, which helped negate the Bears Offense. Including, helping set up opportunities for teammates to make plays. ****
-- Houston and Hutchinson weren’t the only rookies popping against Chicago. Josh Paschal added his first two NFL sacks, while Jameson Williams -- perhaps you’ve heard of him? -- finally touched the football again, and once again was 40 yards downfield before anyone managed to do anything about it. After Williams didn’t come up with either of his early targets -- one of which was behind him, the other of which was at his feet -- playcaller Ben Johnson got Williams involved on a reverse. And Williams blazed through the Bears defense for 40 yards before he was finally hauled down. Jamaal Williams turned the play into another touchdown, and a commanding 31-10 lead in the third quarter. Williams still has caught just one of his six targets this season, which is growing increasingly concerning, but the reverse was another reminder of the rare skill-set Detroit has to work with for years to come.
**** As long as Jamison Williams remains relatively healthy moving forward, he should have a bright future with the Lions. The speed and movement skills Williams displayed on the reverse were differential. Penei Sewell did a great job of down the field blocking, on the play. Differential skills as well.
This was Josh Paschal's best game as a pass rusher. His bull rush skills contributed to multiple sacks. ****
****
-- The touchdown broke a three-game scoreless drought for Williams, which might not sound like much, although it was his longest drought of the season. Williams now has 15 rushing touchdowns on the season, which not only leads the league, but is just one off Barry Sanders’ team record. Williams finished with 144 yards on 22 carries, snapping him out of a late-season funk. D’Andre Swift, meantime, broke out of a funk that stretched all the way back to when he injured his shoulder and ankle in the third week of the season. He ran for 78 yards on just 11 carries, plus caught all four targets for 39 yards, 21 of which came on a huge third-and-18 pickup that led to a touchdown. All of which is huge for Detroit, which probably will need a running game to win in Wisconsin next week. And a run defense too, for that matter.
**** The 3rd and 18 check down reception, in which D'Andre Swift broke a couple of tackles, resulting in a 21 yard gain for a 1st Down was on the first set of downs of the 2nd half. The Lions never looked back after that play. It was the most impactful play of the 2nd half in what was a 24-10 game at the time. Great job by Swift!****
-- It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Detroit despite the crooked score. They allowed the second-most rushing yards in franchise history last week, then talked all week about how much they needed to find solutions this week. Then Justin Fields ran for 105 yards in the first quarter alone, staking Chicago to early leads of 7-0 and 10-7. That’s a troubling trendline for a team that has aspirations of slipping through the backdoor into the playoffs. The good news: They did eventually tighten up, allowing Fields to run for just 17 yards in the final three quarters combined. And Chicago’s offense ground to a halt because of it, failing to even achieve a first down on eight of their final 10 drives.
**** Justin Fields hip injury that he suffered on the 3rd Down stop inside the Lions 5 yard line, that led to the Bears settling for a FG that put them up 10-7, clearly adversely affected his mobility for at least the rest of the first half. Probably, the rest of the game. The hip injury, combined with the Bears being down to their 3rd String RG, definitely were enormous factors in the Lions winning the game by a huge margin. The Lions Defense was tremendous after the Bears first 2 possessions, taking advantage of the Bears misfortunate (though in the long run having a top 2 pick in the 2023 Draft could easily turn misfortune into fortune. ****
-- Last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown became the youngest receiver with a 1,000-yard season in franchise history. This week, he became the youngest receiver with a 100-catch season. He broke records held by Calvin Johnson in both cases. At some point we’re going to have to stop calling St. Brown one of the best young receivers in franchise history, and just start calling him one of the best receivers in franchise history, period. He finished with four catches for 62 yards overall.
**** Amon-Ra St. Brown is already one of the best WRs in the NFL. If not for the ankle injury he suffered in the 2nd QTR of the game at Minnesota back in late September, I believe the Lions would have won that game. The complexion of the Patriots and Cowboys games could have been vastly different if he was relatively healthy for those games. ****
-- Back to the non-sunshine and -rainbows department for a moment, cornerback Jeff Okudah was benched for the second straight week. It was just so jarring to see Okudah and Amani Oruwariye standing next to each other on the sideline while Detroit played a Week 17 game with playoff implications. Oruwariye is probably cooked for good as a starter in this town, but the Lions have a lot invested in the Okudah thing working out. He played some good ball in the first half of the season, but has struggled with his coverage and tackling down the stretch. That earned him a spot on the bench for most of the second half in Carolina, and he was back there again just two series into this one. Perhaps it’s a matter of a long season piling up for a guy who had played just one game in almost two calendar years. Perhaps it’s something more. Either way, with the Lions defense barely hanging on down the stretch, they need more out of Okudah if they want to turn this unlikely playoff bid into something more. Chicago wasn’t good enough to take advantage of the malaise, but Green Bay might, and however they might see in the postseason definitely will.
**** I'm not sure if the plan was to rotate Jeff Okudah in this game, as he came back into the game at times on Defense and was also used as a Punt Gunner. Unlike recent games, I don't recall anything specific Okudah did in this game to be benched. ****
-- When the Lions traded T.J. Hockenson, the situation appeared clear. They were investing in their long-term future, even if there was some short-term pain. He was, after all, their leading receiver at the time. But they insisted they believed they could be even better without Hockenson, and that has proven true. Brock Wright caught two more touchdown passes against Chicago, accounting for the 11th and 12th scores by a Lions tight end this season -- a franchise record! Shane Zylstra caught three touchdowns to account for all the scoring against Carolina, while Wright had the big winner on fourth down the previous week against the Jets. The Lions might not have the same kind of production without Hockenson between the trenches, but they get more than enough of that from guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond, and when he’s healthy, D’Andre Swift too. With the tight ends still producing in the red zone, Detroit hasn’t missed Hockenson one bit. Scoring is actually up without him, and Detroit is 6-2 overall. Now armed with more ammunition in next year’s draft too, that trade is looking like a win all the way around for Brad Holmes.
**** The Lions are 7-2 since the T.J. Hockenson trade. The trade has helped both teams. The Lions are getting better run blocking from TEs than was the case with Hock and great red zone production from the position. Hock is a class act, who picked up the Vikings Offense quickly, enabling to overcome the injury to TE Irv Smith Jr (who very recently was activated from IR).
-- Craig Reynolds replaced Justin Jackson as the starting kick returner against Chicago, although didn’t have a chance to bring one out of the end zone. Jackson was a late scratch because of a hip injury that popped up at practice on Friday.
**** Hopefully, Justin Jackson will be relatively healthy for the Packers game. It's not a knock on Craig Reynolds. The more relatively healthy competition for Game Day opportunities, the better. ****
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This new thread is a continuation of the following thread:
Lions vs. Bears preview: Game # 16 (2022)
detroit-lions-forum.proboards.com/thread/1643/lions-bears-preview-game-2022?page=1